A highly important week for global markets lies ahead, with investors closely watching the US PMI data, the eurozone inflation figures, and the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report. Expectations surrounding inflation, interest rates, and economic resilience are likely to drive volatility across all assets throughout early June trading sessions.
USD: Manufacturing Purchasing Managing Index
June 1, 16:45 MT time
Markets expect the US Manufacturing PMI to print around 53.7, compared to the previous reading of 55.3. A move further above the 50-point threshold would suggest that the US industrial sector is stabilizing despite elevated borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Sentiment surrounding the release remains cautiously constructive: a stronger print would likely support the US Dollar and Treasury yields, whilst reinforcing expectations that the Fed may keep policy tighter for longer. Investors will also closely monitor new orders and employment components for signs that industrial demand is beginning to recover more sustainably across the broader US economy.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and other USD-pairs
EUR: Eurozone Consumer Price Index
June 2, 12:00 MT time
The eurozone’s CPI is forecast to accelerate towards 3.3% YoY, up from the previous 3.0% reading, largely due to rising energy costs linked to tensions in the Middle East. Markets are increasingly concerned that inflation across the area may once again become structurally persistent rather than temporary. As a result, sentiment around the release is rather tense, with investors expecting the European Central Bank to maintain a distinctly hawkish tone and potentially prepare markets for another rate increase even at its June meeting. A hotter-than-expected inflation print could place renewed pressure upon the eurozone’s bonds, whilst simultaneously limiting upside momentum for risk-sensitive assets across the region.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, and other EUR-pairs.
USD: Nonfarm Payrolls
June 5, 15:30 MT time
The US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to show approximately 140K new jobs added in May, compared with the previous reading of 115K. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain relatively firm near its previous 4.3% YoY, suggesting that labor-market conditions continue supporting underlying inflation pressures. Market sentiment remains highly sensitive ahead of the release: a stronger-than-expected report would likely reinforce fears that the Fed may delay rate cuts further — or even begin discussing the possibility of renewed tightening later in the year. At the same time, any meaningful slowdown in hiring could revive concerns surrounding US economic momentum and increase volatility across both equity and bond markets.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and other USD-pairs
