A high-impact week lies ahead: the eurozone CPI will test the ECB outlook, the UK Services PMI will gauge the resilience of Britain’s dominant sector, while Friday’s US NFP could be decisive. After July’s job losses, a second negative print would send a serious warning about the US labor market.
EUR: Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY
September 1, 12:00 MT time
Previous: 2.9% | Forecast: 3.1%
The eurozone headline inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.1% YoY in August, from 2.9% previously. This matters because inflation remains one of the ECB’s principal inputs when assessing the appropriate level and duration of interest rates. A reading above 3.1% would suggest that price pressures are proving more persistent, potentially encouraging markets to price a more restrictive ECB stance for longer and supporting the euro through higher expected yields.
A weaker reading would reduce that pressure and could strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy outlook. For the broader economy, persistently elevated inflation erodes household purchasing power and may constrain consumption, even if it supports nominal revenues. Traders should therefore watch not only the headline figure, but whether the release changes expectations for the ECB’s next policy steps.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, and other EUR-pairs
GBP: U.K. Services Purchasing Managers Index
September 3, 11:30 MT time
Previous: 52.8 | Forecast: 52.8
The final U.K. Services PMI for August is expected to remain at 52.8, confirming the preliminary estimate and improving from the previous final reading of 52.1. Because services account for the largest share of British economic activity, this indicator provides an important early signal on business demand, employment, new orders and corporate confidence.
Any reading above 50 indicates expansion, so a reading of 52.8 would suggest that the sector continues to grow at a moderate pace. An upward revision would strengthen confidence in the resilience of the U.K. economy and could support sterling, particularly if accompanied by stronger employment or price components. A meaningful downward revision would raise concerns that momentum is fading. For the Bank of England, the inflation component is particularly important: strong services activity combined with persistent price pressures could argue against rapid monetary easing.
Affected instruments: EURGBP, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, and other GBP-pairs
USD: US Nonfarm Payrolls
September 4, 15:30 MT time
Previous: -23K | Forecast: +12K
The August Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show the U.S. economy adding only around 12,000 jobs, following an unexpected 23,000 decline in July. The July release was already concerning: payrolls contracted despite expectations for growth, while previous months were revised lower. A rebound above expectations would ease fears that the labor market deteriorates rapidly and could support the US dollar by reducing pressure on the Fed to ease policy aggressively.
Another negative payroll reading, however, would be considerably more serious. A second consecutive month of job losses would suggest that weakness is no longer an isolated statistical disappointment, but develops into a genuine deterioration in the U.S. labor market. That would raise concerns over household income, consumer spending and economic growth, while materially increasing expectations for the Fed rate cuts. Traders would also watch the unemployment rate, wage growth and revisions to previous months carefully — the data is as important as the headline NFP figure itself.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and other USD-pairs
