The week’s events will gradually construct the Fed’s September outlook. Consumer Confidence will show how resilient US households remain, whilst Core PCE delivers the crucial inflation test. The focus then shifts to Jackson Hole, where Fed communication could reshape rate expectations and set the tone for USD, gold and equities.
USD: US CB Consumer Confidence
August 25, 17:00 MT time
Previous: 90.8 | Forecast: 91.8
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures how US households assess current economic conditions and their expectations for the months ahead. July’s reading fell to 90.8 from 91.2, while the current forecast points to a modest recovery to 91.8. Consumer confidence matters because household spending is a major component of US economic activity: stronger confidence can support consumption, growth and, finally, inflation.
A reading clearly above 91.8 would therefore favor the USD by strengthening the case for tighter Fed policy (particularly, after recent signs of softer consumer demand). A downside surprise would reinforce concerns about household spending and could reduce expectations of a September rate increase, putting pressure on the US dollar while supporting gold and other rate-sensitive assets.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and other USD-pairs
USD: US Core PCE Price Index YoY
August 26, 15:30 MT time
Previous: 3.3% | Forecast: around 3.2–3.3%
Core PCE is particularly important because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred underlying inflation measure, excluding volatile food and energy prices. June core PCE stood at 3.3% YoY, and current estimates broadly point to July remaining around 3.2 — 3.3%, still well above the Fed’s 2% inflation objective. This release goes directly to the September rate decision meeting.
A stronger-than-expected figure would suggest that underlying price pressure remains persistent, increasing the probability of tighter Fed policy and potentially lifting the USD, whilst pressuring gold. However, a softer reading would strengthen the case for keeping rates unchanged and could produce the opposite market reaction. With CPI and PPI already showing some moderation, PCE will be a crucial confirmation or rejection of that trend.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and other USD-pairs
USD: Jackson Hole Symposium
August 28, 15:00 MT time
Jackson Hole is not an economic-data release but one of the world’s most closely watched annual central-banking meetings. Hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Wyoming, the symposium brings together central bankers, economists, policymakers, academics and financial-market participants to discuss major monetary and economic issues. Markets pay particular attention to speeches from senior Fed officials as Jackson Hole has historically been used to communicate important shifts in monetary-policy tasks.
This year, attention is especially high around Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and any indication of how the Fed views inflation, growth and the September rate decision. Even subtle changes in language can rapidly shift rate expectations, producing volatility across the USD, Treasury yields, gold, equities and crypto. For traders, the critical point is not simply what officials say, but their messages whether the tone of voice becomes more hawkish or dovish than the market has already priced in.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and other USD-pairs
