The week is shaped by key macro releases, focusing on the Reserve Bank of Australia decision, US services data, and the Nonfarm Payrolls. Markets are balancing slowing growth against persistent inflation, searching for signals on the pace of policy easing. Overall tone: cautious, data-driven, with volatility likely around US labor figures.
AUD: Australia Interest Rate Decision
May 5, 07:30 MT time
Forecast: 4.10% → 4.10% (hold)
The Reserve Bank of Australia was one of the first major central banks to begin tightening earlier in the cycle, which now gives it room to pause. Inflation remains above target, yet the pace is moderating, while growth shows signs of fatigue. The most likely outcome is a hold at the previous rate, with a cautious guidance tone. The RBA is widely anticipated to signal data dependence, which will balance inflation risks against a weakening domestic economy.
Affected instruments: AUDUSD, GBPAUD, EURAUD, and other AUD-pairs
USD: S&P Global Services PMI
May 5, 16:45 MT time
Forecast: 51.5 – 52.5 (stable expansion)
The S&P Global Services PMI is likely to remain in expansion territory, though without a clear acceleration. The services sector continues to show resilience, supported by steady demand, yet momentum appears uneven. Recent data suggests a pattern of moderate growth rather than a strong upswing, with businesses navigating a mix of stable consumption and lingering cost pressures. The report may reinforce the narrative of a slowing but still functioning US economy.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, and other USD-pairs.
USD: Nonfarm Payrolls
May 8, 15:30 MT time
Forecast: +170K – 210K jobs, Unemployment: 4.0% – 4.3%
The Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to show a gradual cooling in the labor market. Following previously strong prints, job creation is likely to moderate but remain positive. Wage growth may ease slightly, reflecting softer demand for labour. A print within the 170K – 210K range would confirm a controlled slowdown rather than deterioration. Markets will focus on whether the trend aligns with expectations of a soft landing rather than a sharp downturn.
Affected instruments: all
