This week, the market’s focus will eye the key US and German macroeconomic releases. Investors will closely monitor whether elevated inflation, rising bond yields, and geopolitical uncertainty are beginning to weigh more heavily on economic momentum. The results may significantly influence expectations on future policy decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
USD: US CB Consumer Confidence
May 26, 17:00 MT time
The previous Consumer Confidence reading came in at 92.8, reflecting a modest recovery in sentiment despite elevated inflation and borrowing costs. For the upcoming May release, forecasts currently point towards a softer figure near 89–90 as households increasingly feel pressure from higher bond yields, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Markets will closely watch whether consumers remain resilient or begin turning more cautious. A stronger-than-expected print could further support the US dollar by reinforcing the narrative of continued US economic resilience, whilst a weaker reading may revive concerns surrounding slowing consumption and softer growth momentum later this year.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and other USD-pairs
USD: US GDP QoQ
May 28, 15:30 MT time
The previous quarterly GDP print showed the country’s economy expanding at an annualized pace of 2.0%, which demonstrated surprising resilience despite restrictive monetary conditions. For the upcoming release, economists currently expect growth to moderate slightly towards approximately 2.1–2.3%, reflecting the growing impact of elevated interest rates, softer housing activity, and tighter financial conditions. Nevertheless, consumer spending and labor market conditions have remained relatively firm so far. Should GDP surprise to the upside, markets may increasingly price in a prolonged “higher for longer” stance from the Federal Reserve. Conversely, a noticeably weaker figure could reopen discussions surrounding eventual policy easing later in 2026.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and other USD-pairs
EUR: Germany CPI MoM
May 29, 15:00 MT time
Germany’s previous monthly CPI reading came in at 0.6%, highlighting that inflationary pressures across the eurozone remain relatively sticky despite slowing economic growth. For the upcoming May release, forecasts currently suggest a slightly softer monthly increase near 0.2–0.3%, although markets remain cautious given ongoing volatility in energy prices and geopolitical tensions. Investors will pay particular attention to service inflation and wage-related price pressures. Should German inflation exceed expectations, it may strengthen the view that the ECB will struggle to adopt a more softer policy stance in the near term. However, a weaker print could modestly support broader risk sentiment across the eurozone.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, and other EUR-pairs.